Policymakers, having left America unprepared for what’s next, now face brutal choices about which communities to save — often at exorbitant costs — and which to sacrifice. After a 2016 fire tornado ripped through northern Canada and a firestorm consumed Gatlinburg, Tenn., he said, “alarm bells started going off” for the insurance industry. For 93 million of them, the changes could be particularly severe, and by 2070, our analysis suggests, if carbon emissions rise at extreme levels, at least four million Americans could find themselves living at the fringe, in places decidedly outside the ideal niche for human life. It could change everything. Where money and technology fail, though, it inevitably falls to government policies — and government subsidies — to pick up the slack. How Climate Migration Will Reshape America. Yet there were so many intangibles — a love of nature, the busy pace of life, the high cost of moving — that conspired to keep us from leaving. Then, entirely predictably, came the drought. On a sweltering afternoon last October, with the skies above me full of wildfire smoke, I called Jesse Keenan, an urban-planning and climate-change specialist then at Harvard’s Graduate School of Design, who advises the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission on market hazards from climate change. Even as hundreds of thousands of Guatemalans fled north toward the United States in recent years, in Jorge’s region — a state called Alta Verapaz, where precipitous mountains covered in coffee plantations and dense, dry forest give way to broader gentle valleys — the residents have largely stayed. She last photographed migrants from Central America for the first part of the climate-migration series. In September 2020, The New York Times released an article called " How Climate Change Will Reshape America " written by Abrahm Lustgarten, a California resident mulling over leaving … Follow Unfollow Following. Imagine large concrete walls separating Fort Lauderdale condominiums from a beachless waterfront, or dozens of new bridges connecting the islands of Philadelphia. Eighty years later, Dust Bowl towns still have slower economic growth and lower per capita income than the rest of the country. Under the radar, a new class of dangerous debt — climate-distressed mortgage loans — might already be threatening the financial system. Guatemala, 2020. Lustgarten, Abrahm. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Perhaps no market force has proved more influential — and more misguided — than the nation’s property-insurance system. ALTA VERAPAZ. ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. His 2016 expose "Bombs in Our Backyard" examined the U.S. Department of Defense's $300 billion environmental liabilities, and 40,000 acres of American lands polluted by military testing. The wave begins when individual perception of risk starts to shift, when the environmental threat reaches past the least fortunate and rattles the physical and financial security of broader, wealthier parts of the population. And then they were gone. Where will they go? Over the next two weeks, 900 blazes incinerated six times as much land as all the state’s 2019 wildfires combined, forcing 100,000 people from their homes. Crop yields will be decimated from Texas to Alabama and all the way north through Oklahoma and Kansas and into Nebraska. By 2070, some 28 million people across the country could face Manhattan-size megafires. Abrahm Lustgarten is a senior environmental reporter at ProPublica. The largest mass movement of humans in history is starting. To answer these questions, I interviewed more than four dozen experts: economists and demographers, climate scientists and insurance executives, architects and urban planners, and I mapped out the danger zones that will close in on Americans over the next 30 years. Buffalo may feel in a few decades like Tempe, Ariz., does today, and Tempe itself will sustain 100-degree average summer temperatures by the end of the century. Market shock, when driven by the sort of cultural awakening to risk that Keenan observes, can strike a neighborhood like an infectious disease, with fear spreading doubt — and devaluation — from door to door. I mentioned this on the phone and then asked Keenan, “Should I be selling my house and getting — ”. The federal National Flood Insurance Program has paid to rebuild houses that have flooded six times over in the same spot. They are likely, in the long term, unsalvageable. August besieged California with a heat unseen in generations. 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